The Property Brothers Just Explained Why the East Valley Housing Market Feels Stuck
The Property Brothers just said on CNBC what East Valley buyers have been living for three years: the problem is not the rate. The problem is the supply. America is 4 million homes short of a healthy market, and the path to fixing it runs directly through communities like Queen Creek, San Tan Valley, and Apache Junction.
Jonathan and Drew Scott have been in this industry for nearly 20 years. When they go on national television and say the supply problem is equal to or greater than the rate problem, that is not a talking point. That is what they see on the ground in every market they work in. And in the East Valley, where I have been doing mortgages since 2002, I have been saying the same thing to every buyer and Realtor who asks me why the market feels stuck.
The Fed held rates steady this week. The announcement was expected. What matters more for buyers in Gilbert, Chandler, Mesa, Queen Creek, and San Tan Valley is not what the Fed did but what the Property Brothers identified as the deeper problem. When rates eventually come down, if there is nothing to buy, the demand surge just pushes prices higher. Supply has to come first.
Why 4 Million Missing Homes Changes Everything
The number Drew Scott cited on CNBC is one that housing economists have been tracking for years. The United States is approximately 4 million homes short of a healthy supply. That gap does not close quickly. It took decades to create and it will take coordinated effort across federal policy, local zoning, and builder financing to meaningfully close it.
of a healthy supply
vs. 95% in Canada
holding buyers back
For the East Valley, this matters in a specific way. Communities like Queen Creek, San Tan Valley, and Apache Junction have been absorbing a significant share of new construction demand from buyers priced out of Gilbert and Chandler. That pressure is real, and it is not going away. The builders who are active in those submarkets right now are doing so in a financing environment that Jonathan Scott described as deeply restrictive.
Here is what he said on CNBC that most people glossed over: in the United States, a developer can only finance up to about 65% of a building they are constructing. That means 35 cents of every dollar they put into a project is locked up and unavailable for the next one. In Canada, developers who include affordable units can finance up to 95% of what they have invested. That single policy difference explains a meaningful part of why the supply gap exists.
Three Barriers Keeping East Valley Supply Constrained
The Property Brothers identified the structural barriers to supply clearly, and each one has a direct East Valley application. These are not abstract national policy issues. They show up in the permit timelines, the home prices, and the lot availability that buyers in this market deal with every single week.
What Modular and Panelized Building Means for East Valley Buyers
Jonathan Scott mentioned that he has been personally investing in panelized and modular building companies. That is worth paying attention to because it signals where serious construction money thinks the solution lies.
Panelized construction builds wall sections, roof panels, and floor systems in a controlled factory environment and then assembles them on site. The labor cost is lower, the build time is faster, and the waste is dramatically reduced. For communities like San Tan Valley and Apache Junction where land costs are still relatively accessible, panelized construction could meaningfully change the cost equation for entry-level and mid-range homes.
For buyers who are watching new construction in the East Valley, the practical takeaway is this: the communities with active builder presence right now are Queen Creek, San Tan Valley, Eastmark, and Apache Junction. Those markets have lot inventory and builders willing to work. A buyer who has been waiting on the sidelines in established Gilbert or Chandler neighborhoods may find a significantly better path to ownership by looking at what is being built rather than what is being listed as resale.
The Rent vs. Own Gap the Property Brothers Called Out
Drew Scott made a point that landed hard for anyone working in Arizona real estate right now. The gap between renting and owning is so wide in many markets that renting actually makes more sense for a lot of families on a pure monthly cost basis. He named Phoenix specifically alongside LA, New York, and San Francisco as an emerging market where affordability has become a genuine barrier.
That is a significant statement. Phoenix is not LA. It was not, until recently, the kind of market that came up in the same breath as the most expensive cities in the country. The fact that it does now reflects how much the East Valley has changed in the last five years and how real the affordability challenge is for buyers who did not get in before 2022.
But here is where the conversation shifts for Veterans, First Responders, and buyers who have not explored every option available to them. The rent vs. own calculation looks completely different when you factor in zero down payment VA financing, the elimination of private mortgage insurance, and programs specifically built for buyers in this market. The Property Brothers encourage home ownership as a long-term wealth-building strategy. That is exactly right. The question is finding the path that makes it financially viable at today's prices and rates.
What East Valley Buyers Should Do Right Now
The Property Brothers' advice for buyers who are not ready to purchase yet was straightforward: pay down debt, protect your credit, and keep saving. That is sound baseline advice. Here is the East Valley-specific version.
If you are a Veteran, a First Responder, or a first-time buyer in Mesa, Gilbert, Chandler, Queen Creek, San Tan Valley, Eastmark, or Apache Junction, the most valuable thing you can do right now is get a complete picture of your actual financing options. Not a generic rate quote. A full review of what programs are available to you, what your payment looks like across different loan structures, and what the rent vs. own math actually shows for your specific household budget.
The supply problem is real and it is not going away quickly. But buyers who understand their options clearly and are prepared to move when the right home is available are the ones who close. The buyers who wait for perfect conditions and perfect rates are the ones who will be having this same conversation three years from now.
Yes, and in some ways it is more acute. The East Valley absorbed significant inbound migration from California and other high-cost states over the last five years. That demand wave hit a market that was not prepared for it from a supply standpoint. Communities like Gilbert and Chandler have very limited new lot availability. The relief valve has been Queen Creek, San Tan Valley, and Apache Junction, where builders are still active and lots are available.
For many buyers, yes. New construction in the outer East Valley communities often comes with builder incentives including rate buydowns and closing cost contributions that resale sellers are not offering. The commute tradeoff is real, but so is the financial tradeoff. A buyer who can make the location work may find a significantly better deal in a new construction home than in a comparable resale closer in.
An ADU, or accessory dwelling unit, is a secondary living unit added to an existing property. It can be a guest house, a converted garage, or a separate structure on the lot. For East Valley homeowners with the space, an ADU can generate rental income, house a family member, or add significant appraised value to the property. The permitting process varies by city but Jonathan Scott is right that it is more complicated than it should be. A lender who understands renovation financing can walk you through how to fund the construction.
For many buyer profiles, yes. The calculation depends heavily on which financing program you qualify for, how long you plan to stay, and what your local rent costs are running. For a Veteran using VA financing with zero down and no PMI, the monthly ownership cost in Apache Junction or San Tan Valley can be competitive with or lower than current rents for comparable square footage. That math needs to be run for your specific situation, not estimated from a national headline.
The honest framing is this: supply is constrained and it is going to stay that way for the foreseeable future. That means the homes that are available and priced correctly are still moving. A buyer who is pre-approved, clear on their criteria, and ready to move decisively is not at a disadvantage in this market. They are at an advantage over buyers who are still figuring out their financing when the right home appears. Get them pre-approved and keep them ready.
The national headlines do not tell your story. A 20-minute conversation with a lender who knows the East Valley market can show you exactly what the math looks like for your household budget and your target community.
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