Sellers Are Playing Ball. This Is the Most Buyer-Friendly Spring in 4 Years

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TEAM CASSELS | EAST VALLEY MORTGAGE

BUYER OPPORTUNITY May 2026 5 min read

Every headwind that typically freezes a housing market hit at once this spring: mortgage rates climbed to a nine-month high, inflation held above 3%, consumer sentiment dropped, and geopolitical uncertainty rattled financial markets. Realtor.com senior economist Jake Cruemmel appeared on national television this week to deliver a verdict that surprised even the analysts who track this daily: the market passed its stress test. Contract signings are up 4% year-over-year. New listings are running above expectations. And in 35 of the top 50 US markets, prices are lower on an annual basis. For buyers in Mesa, Gilbert, Chandler, Queen Creek, San Tan Valley, and Apache Junction, the conditions Cruemmel described are playing out in your backyard right now.

The Stress Test the Market Just Passed

Cruemmel was direct: "Lots of things are really breaking against home buyers right now." He listed them. Rates rose more than 50 basis points since February. Inflation remains elevated. Consumer confidence has been battered by tariff uncertainty and geopolitical tension. Under those conditions, the historical pattern is market paralysis: sellers hold, buyers sit out, transaction volume collapses.

That is not what happened. Instead, Realtor.com's data showed this spring to be the most active market for buyers and sellers since 2022. New listings came in at higher levels than analysts projected. And crucially, buyers and sellers came together: contract signings up 4% year-over-year, which means real transactions happening at higher rates than the same period last year despite every macro variable pointing the other direction.

East Valley homebuyer walking out of her new home with keys, the most buyer-friendly spring in 4 years

"Sellers are actually playing ball this year and that wasn't the case in the past." Jake Cruemmel, Senior Economist, Realtor.com

SPRING 2026 HOUSING MARKET STRESS TEST, REALTOR.COM ANALYSIS

Conditions That Should Have Frozen the Market

Mortgage rates climbed to a nine-month high, up over 50 basis points since February
Inflation holding above 3.8%, higher than the Federal Reserve's target
Consumer sentiment at low levels driven by tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risk
Iran conflict adding uncertainty to energy prices and economic outlook

What Actually Happened

Most active market for buyers and sellers since 2022
New listings above expectations nationally
Contract signings up 4% year-over-year
Prices lower annually in 35 of the top 50 US markets
Source: Jake Cruemmel, Senior Economist, Realtor.com. Interview broadcast May 2026. Assessment: "The most buyer-friendly spring in about 4 years."

Why the East Valley Qualifies as a Buyer's Market Right Now

Cruemmel made a point that is directly relevant to the East Valley: the buyer-friendly conditions are not uniform nationally. He noted that buyers in the West and South have considerably more leverage than buyers in the Northeast and Midwest. "You're actually looking at quite a buyer's market in a lot of these cases," he said, describing the West and South specifically. The Phoenix metro, the East Valley, and the broader Mountain West fall squarely in that category. These are markets that saw aggressive appreciation during the 2020 to 2022 period and have since corrected toward more normal price levels, creating the conditions where sellers are motivated and buyer leverage has returned.

What does seller leverage look like in practice in Mesa, Gilbert, and Chandler right now? Concessions. Sellers covering closing costs, buying down financing costs for buyers, accepting contingencies they would have laughed at in 2021. Cruemmel's summary: "Sellers are actually playing ball this year and that wasn't the case in the past." For East Valley buyers who have been waiting for conditions to tilt in their favor, that tilt is happening.

What Sellers Are Doing Now Available in 2021? What It Means for You
Covering closing costs Rarely Reduces your cash needed at closing. More of your funds stay in your pocket or go toward a larger down payment.
Buying down financing costs Almost never A seller-funded rate buydown reduces your effective monthly payment. On the right property, this can meaningfully improve your total cost of ownership.
Accepting inspection contingencies Often waived Protection you could not demand when 10 other buyers were competing for the same house. Now you can walk away from problems without losing your earnest money.
Annual price reductions Nonexistent 35 of the top 50 US markets show prices lower on an annual basis. You are not buying into a peak. You are buying into a correction that has already happened.

The Rate Environment: What Cruemmel Actually Said

Cruemmel was honest about rates: he does not expect them to return to the sub-6% levels seen earlier in the year anytime soon. The Federal Reserve, now under chair Kevin Warsh, is in what Cruemmel called "a rock and a hard place." Cutting rates risks bond market backlash that could push mortgage costs even higher. The Iran conflict, he said, is "really upstream of everything that's important" when it comes to housing, the Fed, and consumer behavior.

The nuance that matters for East Valley buyers is this: Cruemmel was not saying the current rate environment is fatal to homeownership. He was saying the rate environment is elevated and the market is still working. Transaction volume is up. Sellers are motivated. Prices in many markets are lower than a year ago. The buyers who waited for rates to fall to some imagined perfect number have been watching the market continue to move without them. The buyers who structured their purchases correctly in the current environment are building equity.

FOR EAST VALLEY REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONALS

This is the most buyer-friendly spring in 4 years. Your clients on the sidelines need to hear that from a Realtor.com senior economist, not just their agent.

Real estate agents and financial advisors across Mesa, Gilbert, Chandler, Queen Creek, San Tan Valley, Eastmark, and Apache Junction: the Realtor.com data confirms what you have been seeing on the ground. Sellers are motivated. Inventory is up. Buyers have leverage they have not had since 2022. The clients waiting for conditions to improve are waiting for something that has already arrived. Team Cassels provides East Valley buyers with the pre-approval, the market data, and the rate buydown expertise to act in this environment with confidence. Call us before your next buyer consultation.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

5 Questions East Valley Buyers Are Asking About This Spring's Market

1Rates are at a nine-month high. Isn't this the worst possible time to buy in Gilbert or Chandler?

Realtor.com's senior economist would disagree. Despite the elevated rate environment, contract signings are up 4% year-over-year and this is the most active market since 2022. Rates are part of your payment calculation, but they are not the only variable. Sellers covering closing costs and buying down financing costs for buyers can meaningfully offset elevated rates. Prices in 35 of the top 50 US markets are lower than a year ago. The combination of seller motivation, more inventory, and buyer leverage is what makes this a buyer's market regardless of where rates are in an absolute sense. A pre-approval from Team Cassels will show you exactly what your payment looks like in today's market, not what it would have been at a theoretical future rate that may not arrive.

2What does a seller-funded rate buydown actually mean and how do I get one?

A seller-funded rate buydown is a concession where the seller contributes funds at closing that are used to prepay interest on your mortgage, reducing your effective rate for a period of time or permanently. A temporary buydown might reduce your payment in years one and two of the loan. A permanent buydown reduces it for the life of the loan. In a buyer's market, you negotiate this as part of your offer rather than paying for it out of pocket. Team Cassels specializes in structuring offers that incorporate seller concessions into the financing in a way that maximizes your benefit. A seller covering closing costs and buying down your rate is not an unusual ask in today's East Valley market, it is increasingly standard.

3I have been waiting for rates to fall below 6% before buying. Is that a realistic plan?

Cruemmel was explicit: sub-6% rates are not expected anytime soon. The Federal Reserve is constrained by inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, and bond markets would likely react negatively to premature rate cuts in a way that could push mortgage costs higher, not lower. The buyers who waited through 2023, 2024, and 2025 for rates to fall to a comfortable level are still waiting while the market moved around them. If and when rates do fall meaningfully, competition increases, seller concessions dry up, and prices in many East Valley communities will move upward again. Buying in a higher-rate environment with seller concessions and negotiating leverage, then refinancing if rates fall, is a strategy that has worked for buyers in every prior rate cycle. The phrase "marry the house, date the rate" exists for a reason.

4Are prices actually lower in the East Valley right now compared to last year?

The Realtor.com data showed annual price declines in 35 of the top 50 US markets. The Phoenix metro and the broader Mountain West, which includes the East Valley, have been among the markets where appreciation has slowed and in many cases reversed from the peak levels of 2021 and 2022. This does not mean East Valley home prices have crashed. They have not. But prices in many East Valley communities are lower on an annual comparison than they were at their recent peaks, and sellers who have been sitting on properties that are not moving are more willing to negotiate on both price and concessions than they have been at any point since 2022. That negotiating environment is real and it is visible in the transaction data.

5How do I know if a specific home in Mesa or Queen Creek is priced fairly in this environment?

Your real estate agent provides the comparative market analysis. Your mortgage advisor provides the payment picture and the financing structure. Together, those two inputs tell you whether a specific home is priced fairly and whether the deal makes financial sense for your situation. What Team Cassels adds to that equation is a pre-approval that has been stress-tested against your actual income, debts, and qualifying profile, not an estimate or a pre-qualification that falls apart in underwriting. In a market where motivated sellers are negotiating, the most powerful position you can be in is one where your financing is solid, your budget is clear, and your offer reflects both the market data and your real qualifying capacity. That is what a Team Cassels pre-approval conversation produces.

YOUR NEXT STEP

The Most Buyer-Friendly Spring in 4 Years Will Not Last Forever.

Team Cassels builds pre-approvals that let East Valley buyers act when sellers are motivated. We have been doing this since 2002. The conversation is free.

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