Home Price Growth Is at One-Third Its Pre-Pandemic Pace. For East Valley Buyers Who Have Been Waiting, the FHFA Data Finally Makes the Case.

Not necessarily, and not uniformly. The FHFA census division figure is a broad average across Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Idaho, Wyoming, and other Mountain states. Performance within the East Valley itself varies significantly by community, price point, and property type. Well-located, well-priced homes in Gilbert, Chandler, and established Mesa neighborhoods are behaving differently from overbuilt entry-level spec inventory in some outer East Valley communities. The number to watch for your specific home is a current comparative market analysis from a qualified local real estate professional, not a census division average that includes Colorado and Utah.

The data supports it more than it did in 2022 and 2023. Prices are not running away from you month over month. Sellers are more willing to negotiate. Concessions for closing costs and rate buydowns are back. Inventory is higher. You have more time to be selective. The counterweight is that financing costs remain elevated — but those can be addressed through strategic rate buydowns, seller concessions, and ARM structures that Team Cassels can model for your specific situation. The question is never whether the market is perfect. It is whether waiting is likely to produce a better entry point than acting now. In a market where appreciation has decelerated to 1.7% nationally, the cost of waiting another year is much lower than it was in a market appreciating at 20%.

Generally, established communities with strong school ratings, walkable amenities, and limited new supply are holding value better than outlying new construction communities with high inventory. Within the East Valley, Gilbert, Chandler, and central Mesa have characteristics that historically support price stability. Communities further out like parts of Queen Creek, San Tan Valley, and Apache Junction saw the most aggressive appreciation during the pandemic and have experienced more correction. New construction markets specifically have been more competitive on price because builders are incentivizing sales with rate buydowns and closing cost assistance that resale sellers have historically not matched. That dynamic has shifted the competitive landscape for both buyer types.

That decision depends on why you are selling and what the proceeds are going toward. If you are selling to capture equity and move elsewhere, your equity position is still dramatically higher than pre-2020 — the wealth is real regardless of whether appreciation slowed. If you are selling to move up within the East Valley, the same market that has moderated your sale price has also moderated the price of the home you are buying — you are both a seller and a buyer in the same market. If you are waiting for a return to 2021-style appreciation, that is not the most likely scenario in the near term. The variables that drove that appreciation — pandemic stimulus, near-zero rates, remote work migration — are not present in the same form today.

Only if you plan to live there. Midwest markets like Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio are outperforming partly because they never experienced the same pandemic-era run-up. They are growing from a lower base with less room to correct. But the East Valley's long-term fundamentals — population growth, job market, quality of life, infrastructure investment, and proximity to Phoenix's employment core — remain structurally strong. A 12-month softening in appreciation does not change the decade-long trajectory of the Phoenix metro as one of the highest-growth regions in the country. The FHFA data gives you a better entry point into a market that has proven long-term strength. That is the thesis for buying in the East Valley in 2026, not in spite of the cooling but because of it.