Goldman Sachs Says You Will Need $2.57 Million to Retire. Most People Have a Fraction of That. Your East Valley Home May Be the Bridge.
TEAM CASSELS | EAST VALLEY MORTGAGE
A new Goldman Sachs retirement survey projects Americans will need $2.57 million to retire comfortably by 2043. That figure reflects years of inflation driving up housing costs, healthcare expenses, and the basics of daily living. Households headed by someone 65 or older now spend roughly $122,000 per year, twice what they spent in 2000. The gap between what most people have saved and what retirement actually costs has never been wider. For East Valley homeowners who have built equity over years of ownership, that gap is not as insurmountable as the headlines suggest.
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What You Will Need $2.57M Comfortable retirement by 2043 — Goldman Sachs 2025 survey. Up from $1.75M projected for 2033. |
What Most Have Saved ~$200K Median retirement account balance for Americans ages 65–74. A fraction of what retirement actually costs. |
Senior Home Equity Nationally $14.66T Record housing wealth held by homeowners 62+ as of Q3 2025. Up 1.9% in a single quarter. NRMLA/RiskSpan. |
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The retirement savings gap is real and it is widening. But $14.66 trillion in senior home equity represents a resource that most retirement conversations have not fully incorporated. |
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What Is Driving the $2.57 Million Number
The Goldman Sachs figure is not a random projection. It reflects the compound effect of inflation on the three categories that consume the largest share of retirement spending: housing, healthcare, and daily living expenses. The rate of cost growth in each of these categories has materially outpaced the assumptions built into most people's retirement savings plans.
| Retirement Cost Category | Then (2000) | Now (2025+) |
| Total Annual Household Spending (65+) | ~$60,000/yr | ~$122,000/yr |
| Healthcare Costs in Retirement | Manageable | $165K–$175K lifetime (Fidelity est.) |
| Comfortable Retirement Target | ~$1M planning assumption | $2.57M by 2043 (Goldman Sachs) |
| Home Values (East Valley) | Modest appreciation | +55% since 2020 alone (NAHB) |
Alex Langan, chief investment officer of Langan Financial Group, framed it plainly when speaking to Realtor.com: the $2.57 million figure is not meant to be paralyzing. It is meant to be a wake-up call. The gap between what most people are saving and what retirement actually costs is real and it is widening. Your home is a meaningful part of the answer for a lot of people. It just cannot be the only answer.
House Rich, Cash Poor. And the Gap Is Getting Worse.
The HousingWire report describes a financial condition that is increasingly common among Americans over 65: house rich, cash poor. They own homes with significant value. They have limited dependable income or liquid savings. The assets they need for retirement are locked inside the walls of a home they have lived in for decades.
New data from GreenPath Financial Wellness, a HUD-approved reverse mortgage counseling nonprofit, makes the trend concrete. In 2025, 21.1% of GreenPath's reverse mortgage counseling clients entered the process with a monthly budget deficit, nearly double the 12.2% share in 2024. The average monthly shortfall grew from $1,498 in 2024 to $1,793 in 2025. These are not people who spent carelessly. These are homeowners whose fixed incomes have simply not kept pace with inflation in housing, healthcare, and daily expenses.
MONTHLY BUDGET DEFICIT — REVERSE MORTGAGE COUNSELING CLIENTS (GREENPATH DATA)
2024
12.2%
of clients with budget deficit
$1,498
avg. monthly shortfall
2025
21.1%
of clients with budget deficit ↑ nearly 2×
$1,793
avg. monthly shortfall ↑ $295/mo
GreenPath is a nonprofit HUD-approved reverse mortgage counseling organization. These are homeowners who sought counseling because their fixed income no longer covers their monthly expenses. Source: GreenPath Financial Wellness 2025 client data.
What East Valley Home Equity Actually Looks Like as a Retirement Resource
For Baby Boomers who purchased their homes in the East Valley in the 1990s, 2000s, or even 2010s, the appreciation story is significant. Home values nationally have climbed nearly 55% since 2020 alone, according to the National Association of Home Builders. In communities like Mesa, Gilbert, Chandler, Queen Creek, and San Tan Valley, the combination of a decade-plus of ownership plus the East Valley's specific growth trajectory has produced equity positions that many homeowners have not formally quantified as a retirement resource.
The 2026 HECM lending limit is $1,249,125. For homeowners with values above that, private jumbo reverse mortgage products go up to $4 million. Arizona is one of the states where Finance of America's HomeSafe Second product is available, which allows homeowners 55 and older to access a portion of their equity as a second lien without giving up their existing mortgage or triggering a refinance. The product landscape for senior home equity has never been broader.
The experts in the HousingWire report are consistent on one point: home equity should supplement a retirement plan, not replace it. Relying exclusively on home equity without broader savings, Social Security optimization, and healthcare planning is a fragile strategy. But for a homeowner whose fixed income is $295 a month short of covering their expenses, and who has $400,000 in equity sitting in the walls of their home, the conversation about whether to access that equity is not optional. It is overdue.
FOR FINANCIAL PLANNERS AND ESTATE ATTORNEYS
The retirement gap your clients are facing is now supported by Goldman Sachs data. The home equity solution is now supported by record senior housing wealth. The conversation is overdue.
Financial planners and estate planning attorneys working with Baby Boomer clients across Mesa, Gilbert, Chandler, Queen Creek, San Tan Valley, and Apache Junction have clients who are house rich, cash poor, and increasingly in deficit. Team Cassels specializes in reverse mortgages and home equity strategies for East Valley homeowners. We work directly with financial professionals to model how home equity access fits into a broader retirement plan without disrupting estate goals. That referral conversation belongs on your calendar this week. Call us.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
5 Questions East Valley Homeowners Are Asking About Retirement Costs and Home Equity
The Goldman Sachs number is $2.57 million. I do not have anywhere near that. What do I actually do?
Start by separating what you need to have saved in a retirement account from what you need in total retirement resources. Your home equity is a retirement resource even though it does not appear on a brokerage statement. Your Social Security benefits, particularly if you can optimize when you claim, are a resource. The $2.57 million figure represents the total purchasing power a comfortable retirement requires, not the specific account balance you must carry into retirement day one. A financial planner who understands the full picture, including how home equity access tools can supplement income, will give you a more realistic assessment than the headline number suggests.
I own my home in Mesa or Gilbert and I am in a monthly budget deficit in retirement. What are my options?
The primary options for accessing home equity without selling are a reverse mortgage, a home equity line of credit, or a newer product like a second-lien reverse mortgage if you want to preserve your existing low-rate first mortgage. Each has different implications for your monthly cash flow, your long-term equity, and your estate. The right tool depends on how large your deficit is, how much equity you have, whether you have an existing mortgage, and what your estate goals look like. A mortgage advisor who specializes in these products, working alongside your financial planner, is the right starting point. Team Cassels offers exactly that specialization.
What is a second-lien reverse mortgage and how is it different from a HECM?
A second-lien reverse mortgage, like Finance of America's HomeSafe Second, sits behind your existing first mortgage without requiring you to refinance it. It allows homeowners 55 and older to access a portion of their equity as a second lien. Because it does not touch your first mortgage, homeowners who locked in a low rate during the pandemic can keep it and still tap their equity. The HECM, by contrast, is the FHA-insured program that typically pays off any existing mortgage and replaces it. Arizona is one of the states where the HomeSafe Second product is currently available. Team Cassels can walk through both options and help you determine which structure fits your specific situation.
My financial planner has not suggested using my home equity as part of my retirement plan. Should it be part of the conversation?
Yes. The broader financial planning community has historically treated home equity as separate from retirement planning, partly because the tools for accessing it without selling were limited or poorly understood. That is changing. Second-lien equity withdrawals rose 22% year over year in Q1 2025 to their highest level in 17 years. Reverse mortgage products have improved significantly in structure and consumer protections. Many financial planners are now actively incorporating home equity access into retirement income planning when the client's situation warrants it. If your planner has not raised it, ask directly: given my equity position and my retirement income needs, is there a role for home equity in my plan?
How do I know if my East Valley home has enough equity to make a meaningful difference in my retirement picture?
Get a current valuation of your home and compare it to any outstanding mortgage balance. The difference is your equity. Then have a conversation with a mortgage advisor who specializes in senior home equity products about how much of that equity you could access through a HECM, a second-lien reverse, or another structure, and what that monthly income or lump sum would look like against your budget shortfall. For many East Valley homeowners who bought in the 1990s or 2000s, the equity figure is larger than they expect. That number is the starting point for a retirement conversation that most people are not having clearly enough. Team Cassels can run that analysis with you and your financial advisor in a single conversation.
YOUR NEXT STEP
The Gap Between What You Saved and What Retirement Costs Is Probably Larger Than You Think. Your Home May Help Close It.
Team Cassels specializes in reverse mortgages and senior home equity strategies for East Valley homeowners and the financial professionals who serve them. Since 2002.
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